Bakerloo Line extension: Catford via Peckham is TfL's preferred route

Discussion in 'Public Transport' started by SE Steve, Jul 12, 2011.

  1. Nick Barron

    Nick Barron Admin Staff Member

    When posting stories from other sites, please just include a précis and then a link. Let's not rip other sites' work off please. Thanks.

    I have edited your post.
     
  2. Pah. I'm gutted:

    "To be honest it's not high up the priority list in terms of further development work because of the funding issue," replied Ms Dix.
    "But work was done to confirm that yes, it's a sensible scheme and yes, these are the options worthy of further work.
    "A certain level of further work is being done but if you start going to the public and talking about options ... it's usually on the basis that you are likely to be able to deliver something."

    So in other words let's not talk about it any more til the money's in the pot. So how the hell are they going to fund Crossrail 2 then, of which official TfL option maps were published just last month? There's no no joined up thinking at all. Southwark could have worked with TfL so that construction could have been synchronised with demolition of the Heygate and Aylesbury Estates; virtually the entire extension from Elephant to Peckham could be driven across vacant land / parkland with zero property destruction.

     
  3. Russell & Brockley

    Russell & Brockley Respected Local

    But this isn't actually 'news'. There has never been an announced timetable - even under Ken Livingstone it was always 2020 at the earliest.

    Don't forget the Northern line extension was also given the go ahead this month, but it counts as a small project that can be largely financed by thousands of high rise apartments, at least in theory.

    Unlike Crossrail and CR2 businesses in central London will not be interested in paying a supplementary business rates or a development tax to bring the Bakerloo to South East London, like they have for Crossrail, which will run under many of their businesses. So if £4 billion can be winkled out of central government TfL will use it for CR2 where they can leverage the other taxes and fees.
     
  4. Monkeyboy

    Monkeyboy South East Crusader

  5. SE Steve

    SE Steve Super-South-Easter

    So TfL is saying it supports the idea of a Bakerloo extension in principle, using the Hayes line, and has admitted the first route option (Old Kent Road, Lewisham, Ladywell, Catford, etc. as mapped out in the July 2011 Rail Utilisation Strategy below) has "a far stronger business case due to the inclusion of New Cross."

    That's a plethora of Peckhamites up in arms then. Well, they would be if TfL had the money to build it.

    bakerloo rus.jpg
     
  6. 0ur0

    0ur0 Regular

  7. CrazyCatfrod

    CrazyCatfrod Regular

    They will have the money. Lewisham's corporate plans indicate both a proposed DLR station and a Bakerloo line station in service by 2023/4.
    Call me Crazy but it very much looks like the tube is finally coming to Catfrod. Yipee!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Only it won't be luvverly ol'Catfrod by then as the council want to rename it Rushey Green.
     
  8. EdHammond

    EdHammond South Eastern Guru

    Won't happen, no matter what Lewisham's corporate plans say.

    The money isn't there to support it and Crossrail 2 is a more important objective at the moment anyway, for reasons already outlined. Both a south London DLR extension and a Bakerloo extension are unfunded and unprogrammed at present. We might be in a position where funding has been secured by 2023 (as the next major project post-CR2, perhaps) but that would put completion in the early 2030s.
     
  9. CrazyCatfrod

    CrazyCatfrod Regular

    Hi Steve - Sure money is always an issue and I guess none of us knows anything much about if it's available, but I think we can all with own eyes see the why and the where.

    Boris gave a pretty big clue with 'It's a deal' and Lewisham council is now in negotiations with the landlord of the South Island site with a view to purchasing the 'empty' freehold. They want to build low rise housing overlooking the playing fields with landscaping and river enhancements.This site is also indicated as the Council's proposed location for the new DLR station and walk through.

    The walk through (located under the A205) is intended to connect the South Island site to the Old Dog Track site and provide a pedestrian interchange plaza for the existing Catford (High Level) and the new Bakerloo station on the site of the existing Catford Bridge station.

    Lewisham Council are, even as we speak, decanting their tenants from their latest enormous freehold acquisition - the huge and expansive Catford Shopping Centre Site. The plan indicates complete demolition and redevelopment of the existing shopping centre and housing along with redevelopment of the 2 other major sites. The sites combined is the single biggest urban redevelopment project currently underway or even slated for London during the next 15 years. Nothing, apart from a revamped Westfields in W12, or the Heathrow extension, which is national and not local infrastructure, will come even close in terms of public money married to private industry resources.

    Sure they could always pull the plug but I very much doubt that having started stopping halfway down the road really is an option. The population in the borough of Lewisham is simply sky rocketing. With all these people come the new homes and with them come the new shops and they all need the essential transport infrastructure only a local authority and gvmt can provide.
     
  10. Monkeyboy

    Monkeyboy South East Crusader

    LU are 20+ years away from finishing the current round of upgrades. The BL extension is a great idea, one of several great ideas that would be fantastic for their respective areas. Forget the crowd pleasing speeches, its not on the list for the foreseeable future. It's not half done, its not even being looked at in any detail.
     
  11. EdHammond

    EdHammond South Eastern Guru

    Developments in Lewisham and Catford will I'm sure be used by TfL to argue for control over the Southeastern metro rail services - but as Monkeyboy says the Bakerloo remains a distant dream. Personally I think that there is more value to be wrung out of the existing surface network before the Government will countenance putting £billions aside for Bakerloo extension - unlike Northern extension, CR1 and CR2 the likelihood of finding businesses of sufficient size that they would be prepared to make a financial contribution sufficient to make it economically feasible is essentially zero
     
  12. CrazyCatfrod

    CrazyCatfrod Regular

    Sure rail schemes like CR1 and CR2 move people through London which is great for getting people into London enjoying the London's recreational facilities and it's nightlife or moving them out but it does nothing by way of generating a real boost to London's local authority by way of council tax receipts. That's why schemes like CR1 and CR2 require vast amounts of central Gvmt funding. They are black holes only good for funding corporate profits but do nothing for Local Authorities bank balances.

    Things can be funded differently and the Bakerloo line extension to Hayes is a good example that does exactly the complete opposite. The Bakerloo extension will do nothing but put extra tax money and revenues into the hands of the local authorities and ultimately that means it need not cost the authorities a single penny piece. Lewisham council has not been slow to recognise the financial implications and that's why they've been so busy buying up the town centre. Common sense argues that to spend public money without a plan to make money would be foolish in the extreme. The council know and they can make money and that's why they have been and are buying up large chunks of commercial freeholds in and around central Catford.

    A little further down the line, one stop to be precise, private money is doing exactly the same thing. Shops within a 10 minute walk of a tube station are considered 'freehold gold' by speculators and developers. The closer the land is to the tube station the higher the value and if you're a landowner who knows or suspects a tube station is about to open nearby the value of your land (within the 10 walk minute radius) can easily double or even triple in value overnight. This immediate hike in land values also means commercial rents from retail outlets will increase as well and much by the same metric. This in turn encourages development of existing empty plots of land.

    That's exactly what's happened here. Lower Sydenham the first stop out of Catford Bridge on the Bakerloo Line extension and land that has lain empty for 35 years or more has now been developed and built on. First came the houses and then the people and their incomes - see A. Then they built the places for both them and us to spend money - see B. And all within a 10 minute walk of the new tube station.

    A - Today there are over 600 new housing units with some restaurants created during the past two years on land once zoned only for retail development. The image immediately below was taken in April 2012

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    B - This box of red highlights the remaining portion of the land since developed. It was built on at break neck speed. To appreciate just how fast that break neck speed was Google maps and Bing can't keep up. I cannot find one solitary picture, image, diagram or map of the new commercial development as there simply aren't any available online. It was that fast. Here we see nothing but an empty plot of several acres when in reality this desolate piece of wasteland is now a thriving new commercial heart for many large corporate retailers, smaller shops and outlets.

    Commercial and residential development on such a scale and within a 10 minute walk of the proposed new tube station suggests just one thing. The Bakerloo line extension will happen and it will happen by 2023/4 just as Lewisham's corporate plan indicates. Here both the council and private enterprise are seen singing from the same song sheet. The council is chasing money by way of tax receipts, so are the developers by way enhanced values and so are the retailers by the ringing of their tills.

    It has to be said that for the Local Authorities and for land developers, retailers, landlords and private enterprise in general and central Gvmt the Bakerloo Line extension to Hayes is easily the most affordable and commercially viable alternative available providing as it will the quickest and the largest returns on capital investment for all concerned. All in all it seems that financial strategy and planning such as this present a win win win scenario to all involved and what's more there don't appear to be any losers.

    This is just one example of how large amounts of public money working closely with private resources can be applied in tandem to mutual benefit. On balance it has to be said there are not too many examples that demonstrate the opposite, when so much money got it all so wrong.
     
  13. Monkeyboy

    Monkeyboy South East Crusader

    You could close your eyes and draw a line on almost any part of London and argue that a tube line would be transformational. It wold be great, crossrail 2 isn't funded yet. Thats the next big new line and not in the bag yet. LU has still to secure the money to upgrade the remaining deep lines that are creeking. The BL extension is there as an idea but is not being worked on actively. Good on the local authorities for keeping the profile up, it may do the trick but ive seen no evidence for that.
     
  14. CrazyCatfrod

    CrazyCatfrod Regular

    [​IMG]

    Only the Treasury has to approve the Bakerloo Line extension. The local authority has already approved it. Boris rubber stamped it and Network rail have seconded it. The Bakerloo Line extension has got, as they say, legs. If simply because the Bakerloo Line extension has such a large a captive market of desperate commuters. These are the people the train leaves behind.

    To get an idea as to the real state of commuter transport in south east London try this. Stand on the platform of any of the proposed Bakerloo Line extensions in the morning rush and then tell me about the lack of ticket buying demand and why we should draw lines on maps elsewhere. Then tell me why we don't need more capacity and how any new capacity won't or can't make money.

    During the morning crush the platforms are busy. Each time a train pulls out there are passengers who couldn't squeeze onto the train. They are left behind. Why because the carriages are all full. These guys trying to get to work at a reasonable time are left behind when the train pulls out. They are quite literally left standing on the platform waiting, hoping the next train will have sufficient space for their essential daily 14 minute journey into town. There aren't enough trains, there aren't enough carriages and there aren't enough lines. The amount of captive demand in the south east London train corridor has to be seen to be believed.

    New housing (as shown in the earlier post) only makes the problem worse. As the local population mushrooms so the local rail infrastructure must try to keep up. Something it is struggling to do.

    The Treasury hasn't rejected or approved any funding because to date it hasn't seen one single solitary proposal. Once the local authority and Network rail put their scheme to the Treasury it will be approved. Of this I am certain and the reason is plain, profit. The scheme will be approved not because the scheme requires enormous amounts of public money but for exactly the opposite as it requires only minimal seed capital. That is why this scheme is so fundamentally different to CR1 and CR2.

    It is foolish in the extreme to try to compare the 3 schemes respective funding requirements as they are so completely at odds with one another. The Bakerloo Line extension is one that will directly generate enormous amounts of income both for the local authority and for central government. This will happen through minimal financial investment and for this reason and this reason alone the Treasury will not indeed could not be allowed to stand in it's way.
     
  15. Monkeyboy

    Monkeyboy South East Crusader

    Lewisham won't be approving or proposing anything. They will not be in a position to fund it and certainly don't have the resource or skills to make a credible case. If it comes from anywhere it will be TfL, to do that will take a chunk of money to put together a business plan, they have the strategic nous to understand how it will affect other services and the dis benefits (there will be some) That hasn't been allocated let alone any plan proper. The mayor hasn't "rubber stamped" anything, all he's done is agreed that it would be great. He's a politician, it's what they do. IF it happens (I think it will eventually) it will be 20 years plus away.
     
  16. EdHammond

    EdHammond South Eastern Guru

    Monkeyboy is right I'm afraid, with the best will in the world Lewisham LBC can't do this on their own. There is some precedent for local authorities working closely with TfL on capital works - witness the Croxley Link and the work done by Herts CC - but the Bakerloo extension would be of a different order of magnitude. The developer contributions would need to be massive to make it attractive to DfT but there isn't the cash from West End businesses and Canary Wharf that make Crossrail 1 an attractive proposition. There's no reason to think it won't happen one day but no developer currently buying up and building on land around possible future Tube stations is doing so because they think it's likely that the Bakerloo will be coming any time soon. Instead they are looking at the relatively quick existing journey times into Blackfriars, Cannon Street, Charing Cross and London Bridge, and at the relatively cheap land available on the Zone 2/3 border. Nobody is making any investment decisions on the assumption that Bakerloo will arrive in 2023, or even 2033.

    Lewisham's business rate take may increase as a result but there's an argument that this would happen anyway - even if rate revenue skyrocketed (and the government put in place a more generous, for Lewisham, system for national business rate redistribution than the one we have at present) the vagaries of local government finance mean that it would be difficult for Lewisham to borrow against this to part-fund capital works.

    Bakerloo extension is mentioned in Network Rail's London and South East RUSs but only in general, speculative terms. Boris has argued in favour of it but that honestly counts for little when DfT are holding the purse strings. A cynic would say that DfT would be unwilling to fund an extension to a Tube gauge line - with all the limitations that means - that has little capacity in central London to cope with more passengers, and a wholly inadequate interchange at Elephant and Castle to that which would be necessary to deal with passengers coming from south east London and wanting to travel into the City on the Northern. Rebuilding E&C would cost millions in itself before you even start getting picks in the ground to build your line down Old Kent Road.

    My finger in the air thinking says 2035 at the earliest - although I have a feeling that in the meantime Bakerloo extension will transmogrify into Crossrail 3.
     
  17. CrazyCatfrod

    CrazyCatfrod Regular

    [​IMG]
    Scotty was right all along. Warp speed is possible and it's available right here, right now to you and I and we don't even need a star ship or wait for one be invented to experience it. What's more Scotty through the magic of GSP modelling is going to show you why Boris's 2020 vision is so precisely timed and why 2020 is not all about fighting Klingons or a visit to Boots for a new pair of specs.

    So you ask who needs science and scientists and all that future stuff anyway? If it's a finger in the air that usually works for you then be prepared and hold onto your digits - all of them - as the real answer might shock you.

    [​IMG]
    Here is a picture showing London's past, present and most amazingly of all it's future population. The sharp eyed will have already noticed a small projection at the far right hand side. The broken line disappearing off the top and side of the picture. This graph is from the Gvmt (COS) so it's probably comes as no surprise to anyone that the most interesting part of the graph is that teeny weeney small broken line projection at the far right hand side. As the graph was small I had to enlarge it to see the detail.

    The image tells us London's population has grown steadily since 1991 and it also says that until 1991 numbers living in London were on a continuous downward slope. The decline started at about the start of the second world war - 1941. The London Blitz marked that watershed moment and the downward trend that started over seventy years ago has only relatively recently been reversed.

    In 1991 population figures started to rise in London for the first time in almost a generation. They have continued to rise every year since and they show no indication of falling. Levelling off yes but falling no. Perhaps that would take another war but that's not the topic under discussion so I won't go there.

    This graph also represents money. Money for Gvmt, money for local authorities, money for developers, money for shops and infrastructure projects and ultimately - through rising house prices - money for you and I as London home owners. If you don't own a home then the amount of rent you pay is determined in part by this graph. Like it or not here is an indicator that determines why the streets are so crowded, the supermarkets so full and there are so few places for children at the local primary. One way or another population growth effects us all and that's why that little projection at the end of the picture is so all powerful and so all important. The solid line tells how things were, the broken line - how things will be.

    That broken line tells Gvmt planners, business owners, financiers and civil servants when demand will happen and it also tells them how big that demand will be when it hits. If you were a bank or any other financial institution, something London's choc-a-bloc with, and are busy lending money to the Gvmt or business, knowledge like this is really worth having. This tells you when people will want to borrow your money and it also tells you (if you were a bank) how quickly you might expect to be repaid.

    The year 2021 is marked with the large letter A as a break point. Before A the population has been growing both rapidly and steadily. Then at 2021 something happens. There is a slow down in growth. A slow down can happen for various reasons with a lack of resources easily being the biggest of the bunch. A lack of personal resources means fewer children and a lack of space to expand either for shops or business and this in turn feeds through to the economy as a lack of investment in infrastructure to house or move people about efficiently. These are examples of how any slow down in population impacts on people living and working in London.

    Is this right? Could such a thing really happen? Will London's population after fifty or more years of steady growth and increasing affluence start to decline? The short answer is yes. At least it's considered mathematically the most likely outcome for London's population in the coming years. Population modelling is derived using programs like Geometer’s Sketchpad (GSM). They illustrate mathematical modelling and morphing in population statistics.

    [​IMG]
    Just in case you're already far too bored and disinterested at the very mention of the word maths today maths is not all logs, sums and pie charts. Maths has got a fun side too. The same principles can be used to calculate how much faster than the speed of light(!) the space ship The Enterprise is travelling. Scotty would be pleased. At last an accurate warp speed indicator dial down in the engine room. Alas. Such a piece of software also means we will no longer hear Scotty's desperate protestations of "She canno go any faster Cap'n" or "She canno take any more" or the dire "She'll blow any minute Cap'n!". Such a shame. Maths in solving one problem is then set to deprive us of the entertainment value of Scotty's oily cloth of intercom exertions from a dozen or so decks below.

    [​IMG]
    In this enlarged picture the population slowdown starts at A in 2021, one year after Boris's 2020 marker. The projected slow rate (the lower red line) reaches the nine million mark in 2031 whereas if population growth were to continue at today's rate (the higher red line) it would reach the nine million mark by 2024.That's a whole seven years earlier. That's a big difference for business profits and one too big for Gvmt to bear.

    Only in 2031 does the projected population finally reaches the same point the population would have grown to if there hadn't been a slow down in growth. That difference of seven years is projected as a slowdown starting in 2021 and that big red flag is something to be avoided. It means money S L O W S DOWN and no one least of all banks or Gvmt likes or wants to wait for their money one day or even one second longer than is absolutely necessary. It must be said that in many ways even we are a little like that too. If you've done a days work then you want to be paid and if that money arrives one day sooner than it should everybody's happy.

    The projected population slowdown means this one simple idea - money will be delayed and diluted and profits reduced and upsetting business and Gvmt all at the same time is something politicians try to avoid like the plague. As the angle of the graph drops population growth slows and then so does the amount of money made. We all get used to things the way they are and Banks are no exception. They don't want to see their profits slow down or their rate of return ease. In todays world profit and capital returns are the very lifeblood of banks business and Gvmts alike. Profit and money is also the single most important reason Gvmts across the world use mathematical modelling. Mapping trends in advance gives warning of strategic points strengths and weaknesses. Politics is only one half of the equation, for all the rest there's maths.

    Now back to Boris and his 2020 vision for London. 2020 is one whole year before 2021 the date of the proposed population slowdown and Boris knows just as we all do policy determined today behind closed doors and not in public in 2020 will not only impact upon future tax receipts but must also impact upon the daily lives of everyday Londoners. If there's to be a healthy London economy in 2021 the pitfalls of the pencilled in slowdown must to be managed today.

    The policy decision to cater for the future of Londoners transport system started a long, long time ago. Way before 2013. The Bakerloo Line Extension is in part a political process but it is one that had to be restarted in 2009 due to population. It was only halted for exactly the same reason population. Back then it was population decrease and not increase that put the kibosh on future investment plans. That and the Germans of course.

    The process continues but now it continues with a very fixed and fast approaching end date. A date not set by me, or set by you but one set by Scotty's little helpers. Their work is now helping London to plot it's own course of infrastructure investment. Into the 22nd century and beyond.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Monkeyboy

    Monkeyboy South East Crusader

    i take it all back. warp speed Captain Catfrod! godspeed!
     
  19. CrazyCatfrod

    CrazyCatfrod Regular



    'Warp Speed 8 Mr Scotty'​

    'Aye Aye Cap'n'​


    'Set phazers to stun Mr Zulu'​

    'Psychedelic Cap'n'​


    'Shields Up Mr Checkov'​

    'Why you don't play chess Mr Chekov?'​

    'Because I'm not really from Russia Cap'n and please don't talk to me like that'​


    'Open a communications channel - you gorgeous long legged chick'​

    and​

    'Remind Monkeyboy to see me in my quarters later'​


    ;)
     
  20. propdevel

    propdevel Newbie

    This is not true.

    It is now planned and probably planned for the route to take the Bakerloo line through Lewisham and Catford. At Long last!! These boroughs are the most central and under rated boroughs with a massive expanding population that needs transport!
     

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